WSC Weekly
2026世界学者杯
the World Scholar's Cup
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2026年度主题
Are We There Yet?
WSC Weekly专栏将精选最新话题内容
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永恒的学术精神与信念
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锁定每周WSC Weekly
上期回顾&Quiz答案揭晓
在2025年世界学者杯第40期WSC Weekly栏目中，我们与小学者一起了解了老歌是如何在算法与资本的加持下统治现代音乐市场。在上期的趣味Quiz中，你是否找到了正确答案？现在就让我们一起来揭晓吧！
为什么新歌越来越不如老歌受欢迎？
Is Old Music Killing New Music?
第40期Quiz答案揭晓：
Which of the following comments is the least accurate explanation for the decline in popularity of new music?
以下哪项评论作为解释新音乐人气下降的原因最不准确？
A. “Technology makes people less creative” “技术削弱了人们的创造力”
B. “Humans are risk aversive in nature” “人类天生厌恶风险”
C. “The music industry is overly profit-driven.” “音乐产业过度追求利润”
D. “Court decisions stifle the innovation” “法院判决扼杀了创新”
E. “Streaming platforms are just echo chambers of preference”“流媒体平台只是偏好的回音室”
正确答案：A
Key: A
2026年第1期
Weekly Intro
进度条为什么偏偏爱卡在99%？我们真正讨厌的到底是等待，还是等待带来的失控感？
本期Weekly将从进度条的诞生讲起，延伸到“安慰剂按钮”的城市日常，拆解那些让我们更安心、却未必更真实的设计，一起来看看吧！
2026 No.1
进度条怎么老卡着不动？
因为都是假的
Can you trust the progress bar?
99%卡住的不是下载，是情绪
相信很多人都有过这样的经历：你目不转睛地盯着下载界面，看着那条蓝色进度条一点点向终点挪动，却偏偏在 99% 的地方卡住，仿佛再也不会前进。这种熟悉的挫败感揭示了现代生活中的一个基本心理事实，即真正让我们难受的，并不是等待本身，而是等待时那种焦虑与无力感。在计算机发展的早期，机器运行缓慢、又容易死机，用户往往无法判断程序究竟还在运作还是已经悄然崩溃。“进度条”正是在这样的背景下被发明的，它向用户暗示机器内部仍有程序在有条不紊地运行，从而缓解用户的不安。
We have all been there: staring intently at a digital download, watching the blue bar creep toward the finish line, only for it to stall indefinitely at 99%.This common frustration highlights a fundamental psychological truth about modern life: it is not the wait itself that bothers us, but how we feel about it.In the early days of computing, when machines were slow and prone to crashing, users often had no way of knowing if their programs were still working or had simply died.The "progress bar" was proposed as a solution to mitigate this anxiety, signaling that their command is still processing deep inside the machine.
不完美的透明也更安心
现代数字进度条的雏形出现在 20 世纪 80 年代初，当时“人机交互”还是一个新兴领域。1985 年的一次学术会议上，还是研究生的布拉德·A·迈尔斯（Brad A. Myers）提出，计算机需要“完成百分比指示器”来提升可用性。那时，许多程序只会显示“正在运行……”或“请稍候”之类的静态提示，让用户无法判断系统是否真的在推进。迈尔斯推测，如果能把任务的进展以可视化方式逐步呈现出来，不仅能缓解焦虑，甚至还能提升工作效率。为此，他设计了一项实验，让 48 名学生进行数据库搜索，其中一部分界面带有逐渐填充的进度条，另一部分则没有。结果非常明显：即便进度条并不完全准确，仍有 86% 的参与者更偏好带有进度显示的版本。他们表示，看到进度变化让自己更安心，也更相信系统的可靠性。这项研究揭示了一个重要心理规律：相比沉默，人们更愿意接受哪怕并不完美的“透明”。只要进度条在移动，大脑就会感到时间没有被白白浪费。
The modern digital progress bar took shape in the early 1980s, a period when computer-human interaction was still an emerging field.At a 1985 conference, Brad A. Myers, then a graduate student, argued that computers needed “percent-done progress indicators” to improve usability.At that time, many programs simply displayed static messages like “Working…” or “Please wait,” leaving users unsure whether any progress was actually occurring. Myers hypothesized that visualizing incremental progress would reduce anxiety and even improve work performance. To test this idea, he conducted an experiment in which 48 students performed database searches, some with a filling progress capsule and some without.The results were striking: 86 percent preferred the version with a progress bar, even when it was not entirely accurate.Participants reported feeling calmer and more confident about the system’s reliability.The study revealed that users value transparency—even imperfect transparency—over silence.A moving bar reassures the brain that time is not being wasted.
把“时间”变得可见
然而，进度条背后的理念其实在计算机诞生前几十年就出现了。它的概念源头可以追溯到 20 世纪初企业和项目管理中使用的“进度图表”。这些图表通过可视化方式呈现任务随时间推进的情况，使管理者能够一眼掌握复杂项目的进展。工业管理先驱沃尔特·波拉科夫（Walter Polakov）在 1923 年称赞进度图表，因为它们让工作扎根于他所谓的“人类生活中不可化约、最终的要素——时间”。通过把抽象流程转化为可见的阶段性进展，这些图表让“时间”变得具体而可感。从某种意义上说，数字进度条不过是这种进度图表的现代衍生品。两者都试图让看不见的努力变得可见，让人确信事情确实在向前推进。
Yet the idea behind the progress bar predates computers by decades.Its conceptual ancestor can be found in early 20th-century “progress charts” used in business and project management.These charts visually mapped the completion of tasks over time, allowing managers to track complex operations at a glance. Walter Polakov, a pioneer in industrial management, praised progress charts in 1923 for grounding work in what he called “the irreducible and final element of human life — time.”By translating abstract processes into visible increments, these charts made time tangible.In many ways, the digital progress bar is simply the modern descendant of these charts. Both seek to answer the same question: how can we make invisible effort visible, and how can we reassure people that progress is happening?
从提示到“心理操控”
自迈尔斯的研究以来，横向进度条一直是进度条的主流形式，但它也逐渐演变成一种精细的心理设计工具。卡内基梅隆大学的研究者克里斯·哈里森（Chris Harrison）等人发现，闪动色彩、逆向滑动的动态条纹等细节设计可以“欺骗大脑”，让人感觉进度推进得更快。由于人们本能地厌恶看到进度条完全停滞，如今许多界面即便任务已暂停，也会让进度条看起来好像在“缓慢持续前进”。这为设计者带来一个耐人寻味的伦理问题：用户是希望了解进度延迟的真实情况，还是更愿意接受一种更轻松舒适的“事情正在推进中”的假象？
In the decades since Myers’s research, the horizontal progress bar has remained the prevailing form, though it has evolved into a sophisticated tool of psychological manipulation.Modern scientists, like Chris Harrison at Carnegie Mellon, have studied how refinements like strobing colors or animated ribbing that slides against the grain can "fool the brain" into perceiving faster movement.Because people have a visceral dislike of seeing a bar reach a standstill, many interfaces are now programmed to "inch forever forward" even when a task has actually stalled out.This leads to a fascinating ethical question for designers: do users actually want the truth of a technical delay, or do they prefer the more relaxed, more comfortable experience of a bar that pretends to keep moving?
给你掌控感的“假动作”
这种真实与舒适之间的张力，使进度条与更广泛的“安慰剂按钮”现象联系在一起。“安慰剂按钮”指的是那些主要用于赋予人心理掌控感的公共装置。我们的日常行为深受操作性条件作用影响。按下门铃会听到铃声，按下自动售货机按钮会得到饮料，于是我们形成了“行动必有结果”的信念。然而，在按键与结果之间的“魔法”，往往只是心理幻觉。事实上，现代生活中许多按钮根本不起作用，它们存在的意义只是安抚使用者，在这个高度自动化的世界中提供一种虚假的掌控感。
This tension between reality and comfort links the progress bar to the broader phenomenon of "placebo buttons"—public mechanisms that exist primarily to provide a sense of psychological agency.Our lives are governed by operant conditioning. We press a doorbell and hear a ring, or press a vending machine button and receive a soda, reinforcing the belief that our actions always yield results. However, the "magic" that occurs between the press and the result is often an illusion.In reality, many buttons in modern life don't actually do anything at all. They are there to comfort the user and provide a feeling of control in an increasingly automated world.
城市里的“心理补丁”
“安慰剂按钮”在城市中随处可见，最典型的例子便是电梯里的“关门”按钮。《纽约客》等媒体曾报道，美国相当比例的关门按钮自 20 世纪 90 年代起就已失效。很多按钮只有在紧急人员使用物理钥匙时才会生效，但普通乘客仍习惯性地按下它们。当电梯门按照既定程序关闭时，乘客的大脑会产生一阵“短暂的愉悦”，误以为是自己触发了这一结果。这种错觉强化了行为，让人下次进入电梯时仍然会本能地伸手去按按钮。类似地，2003 年的一项调查显示，72% 的美国暖通从业者承认曾安装假的恒温器，有专家甚至估计，多达 90% 的办公室恒温器其实未连接系统。有些装置还会在旋钮转动时发出“嘶嘶”的气流声，以增强真实感，让人误以为自己正在控制温度。那么问题来了，这种仅仅为了欺骗大脑、提供安慰而设置的装置应该被允许在公共场合中存在吗？
Examples of these "mechanical placebos" are hidden in plain sight throughout our cities, most notably in the form of elevator "close-door" buttons.Investigations by groups like The reports in The New Yorker have revealed that a significant percentage of these buttons have been inactive in the U.S. since the 1990s.Often, they are only wired to function when an emergency worker uses a physical key, yet the average passenger continues to press them. When the doors eventually close on their own timer, the passenger experiences a "spurt of happiness" in the brain, falsely believing they caused the action. This reinforces the behavior, ensuring that the next time they enter an elevator, they will reach for the button once again. Similarly, according to a 2003 survey, 72 percent of HVAC respondents admitted to installing these fakes, and some specialists suggest that up to 90 percent of office thermostats are disconnected. Some setups even include pneumatic tubes that hiss when the dial is turned, mimicking the sound of air flow to convince the worker they are in control.So the question arises: Should such devices, designed solely to deceive the brain and provide comfort, be permitted in public spaces?
Weekly 关键词 Key Words
progress bar 进度条
placebo button 安慰剂按钮
所属话题
Progress, Not Regress
相关阅读
https://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/02/10/placebo-buttons/
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/magazine/who-made-that-progress-bar.html?_r=0
Weekly FUN Quiz
相信现在你已经知道了进度条与安慰剂按钮如何用“推进感”和“掌控感”缓解焦虑，并影响我们对真实的判断了吧！那就快来参与本期Weekly FUN Quiz👇，告诉老师你的答案吧！
Quiz
Which of the following is LEAST likely to be an example of placebo buttons?
下列哪项最不可能属于安慰剂效应的例子？
A) The "Close Door" buttons found in many modern elevators manufactured after the passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).
美国《残疾人法案》（ADA）颁布后，许多现代电梯上设置的“关门”按钮。
B) The pedestrian push-buttons at a busy 5th Avenue intersection in Manhattan during peak rush hour.
曼哈顿第五大道繁忙路口在高峰时段设置的行人按钮。
C) The "Check for Updates" button in an operating system's settings.
操作系统设置里的“检查更新”按钮。
D) Office thermostats that allow employees to adjust the temperature within a narrow, locked range.
允许员工在锁定的狭窄范围内调节温度的办公室温控器。
E) The button on a car's dashboard that immediately activates the flashing exterior lights.
汽车仪表盘上能立即启动外部闪光灯的按钮。
